************************ ** FIGUREs 3 & 4 ** ** Marginal Effects ** ** for: Table 4 ** clear all set more off ** Figure 3 interaction with administration compensation ** use "micref.dta", clear gen PA_reform =1 if reform_area==16 | reform_area==18 | reform_area==21 | reform_area==28 | reform_area==3 | reform_area==37 | reform_area==39 | reform_area==40 | reform_area==58 | reform_area==59 | reform_area==65 | reform_area==66 | reform_area==71 by Year_country : egen pa_reforms =count(PA_reform) tsset country year local years year1-year14 local c_base1 Inflation Ln_Population Population_workage ************** * GDP growth * preserve gen XXX = GDP_growth*admincomp xtreg f1.pa_reforms GDP_growth admincomp XXX `c_base1' `years', fe cluster(country) gen temp_new=1 if e(sample) matrix b=e(b) matrix V=e(V) *get coefficients, variances and covariance of election and of the interaction term scalar b1=b[1,1] scalar b3=b[1,3] scalar varb1=V[1,1] scalar varb3=V[3,3] scalar covb1b3=V[1,3] scalar list b1 b3 varb1 varb3 covb1b3 *shall start at 0 and be in steps of 0.05 gen MVZ=(_n-1) *25 is maximum value for which marginal effect shall be displayed replace MVZ=. if _n>25 *marginal effect calculation for values of Z gen conbx=b1+b3*MVZ if _n<26 *std error of marginal effects gen consx=sqrt(varb1+varb3*(MVZ^2)+2*covb1b3*MVZ) if _n<26 *confidence interval gen ax=1.96*consx gen upperx=conbx+ax gen lowerx=conbx-ax gen yline=0 *plot local varlabel: variable label admincomp *lines graph twoway hist admincomp if temp_new==1, width(1) percent color(gs14) yaxis(2) /// || line conbx MVZ, clpattern(solid) clwidth(medium) clcolor(black) yaxis(1) /// || line upperx MVZ, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black) /// || line lowerx MVZ, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black) /// || line yline MVZ, clwidth(thin) clcolor(black) clpattern(solid) /// || , /// xlabel(0(5)25, nogrid labsize(2)) /// ylabel(-.3(.1).5, axis(1) nogrid labsize(2)) /// ylabel(0(2)22, axis(2) nogrid labsize(2)) /// yscale(noline alt) /// yscale(noline alt axis(2)) /// xscale(noline) /// legend(off) /// xtitle("`varlabel'" , size(2.5) ) /// ytitle("Marginal effect of crisis" , axis(1) size(2.5)) /// ytitle("" , axis(2) size(2.5)) /// r2title("Percentage of observations", size(2.5)) /// xsca(titlegap(2)) /// ysca(titlegap(2)) /// scheme(s2mono) graphregion(fcolor(white) ilcolor(white) lcolor(white)) graph export admin_gdp.pdf, as(pdf) replace restore ************************ *unemployment rate preserve gen XXX = unemploymentrate*admincomp xtreg f1.pa_reforms unemploymentrate admincomp XXX `c_base1' `years', fe cluster(country) gen temp_new=1 if e(sample) matrix b=e(b) matrix V=e(V) *get coefficients, variances and covariance of election and of the interaction term scalar b1=b[1,1] scalar b3=b[1,3] scalar varb1=V[1,1] scalar varb3=V[3,3] scalar covb1b3=V[1,3] scalar list b1 b3 varb1 varb3 covb1b3 *shall start at 0 and be in steps of 0.05 gen MVZ=(_n-1) *25 is maximum value for which marginal effect shall be displayed replace MVZ=. if _n>25 *marginal effect calculation for values of Z gen conbx=b1+b3*MVZ if _n<26 *std error of marginal effects gen consx=sqrt(varb1+varb3*(MVZ^2)+2*covb1b3*MVZ) if _n<26 *confidence interval gen ax=1.96*consx gen upperx=conbx+ax gen lowerx=conbx-ax gen yline=0 *plot local varlabel: variable label admincomp *lines graph twoway hist admincomp if temp_new==1, width(1) percent color(gs14) yaxis(2) /// || line conbx MVZ, clpattern(solid) clwidth(medium) clcolor(black) yaxis(1) /// || line upperx MVZ, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black) /// || line lowerx MVZ, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black) /// || line yline MVZ, clwidth(thin) clcolor(black) clpattern(solid) /// || , /// xlabel(0(5)25, nogrid labsize(2)) /// ylabel(-.5(.1).7, axis(1) nogrid labsize(2)) /// ylabel(0(2)22, axis(2) nogrid labsize(2)) /// yscale(noline alt) /// yscale(noline alt axis(2)) /// xscale(noline) /// legend(off) /// xtitle("`varlabel'" , size(2.5) ) /// ytitle("Marginal effect of crisis" , axis(1) size(2.5)) /// ytitle("" , axis(2) size(2.5)) /// r2title("Percentage of observations", size(2.5)) /// xsca(titlegap(2)) /// ysca(titlegap(2)) /// scheme(s2mono) graphregion(fcolor(white) ilcolor(white) lcolor(white)) graph export admin_unemployment.pdf, as(pdf) replace restore preserve ************************ *eu_debt_gdp gen XXX = eu_debt_gdp*admincomp xtreg f1.pa_reforms eu_debt_gdp admincomp XXX `c_base1' `years', fe cluster(country) gen temp_new=1 if e(sample) matrix b=e(b) matrix V=e(V) *get coefficients, variances and covariance of election and of the interaction term scalar b1=b[1,1] scalar b3=b[1,3] scalar varb1=V[1,1] scalar varb3=V[3,3] scalar covb1b3=V[1,3] scalar list b1 b3 varb1 varb3 covb1b3 *shall start at 0 and be in steps of 0.05 gen MVZ=(_n-1) *25 is maximum value for which marginal effect shall be displayed replace MVZ=. if _n>25 *marginal effect calculation for values of Z gen conbx=b1+b3*MVZ if _n<26 *std error of marginal effects gen consx=sqrt(varb1+varb3*(MVZ^2)+2*covb1b3*MVZ) if _n<26 *confidence interval gen ax=1.96*consx gen upperx=conbx+ax gen lowerx=conbx-ax gen yline=0 *plot local varlabel: variable label admincomp *lines graph twoway hist admincomp if temp_new==1, width(1) percent color(gs14) yaxis(2) /// || line conbx MVZ, clpattern(solid) clwidth(medium) clcolor(black) yaxis(1) /// || line upperx MVZ, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black) /// || line lowerx MVZ, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black) /// || line yline MVZ, clwidth(thin) clcolor(black) clpattern(solid) /// || , /// xlabel(0(5)25, nogrid labsize(2)) /// ylabel(-.04(.02).12, axis(1) nogrid labsize(2)) /// ylabel(0(2)22, axis(2) nogrid labsize(2)) /// yscale(noline alt) /// yscale(noline alt axis(2)) /// xscale(noline) /// legend(off) /// xtitle("`varlabel'" , size(2.5) ) /// ytitle("Marginal effect of crisis" , axis(1) size(2.5)) /// ytitle("" , axis(2) size(2.5)) /// r2title("Percentage of observations", size(2.5)) /// xsca(titlegap(2)) /// ysca(titlegap(2)) /// scheme(s2mono) graphregion(fcolor(white) ilcolor(white) lcolor(white)) graph export admin_eu_debt_gdp.pdf, as(pdf) replace restore preserve ************************ *eu_balance_gdp gen XXX = eu_balance_gdp*admincomp xtreg f1.pa_reforms eu_balance_gdp admincomp XXX `c_base1' `years', fe cluster(country) gen temp_new=1 if e(sample) matrix b=e(b) matrix V=e(V) *get coefficients, variances and covariance of election and of the interaction term scalar b1=b[1,1] scalar b3=b[1,3] scalar varb1=V[1,1] scalar varb3=V[3,3] scalar covb1b3=V[1,3] scalar list b1 b3 varb1 varb3 covb1b3 *shall start at 0 and be in steps of 0.05 gen MVZ=(_n-1) *25 is maximum value for which marginal effect shall be displayed replace MVZ=. if _n>25 *marginal effect calculation for values of Z gen conbx=b1+b3*MVZ if _n<26 *std error of marginal effects gen consx=sqrt(varb1+varb3*(MVZ^2)+2*covb1b3*MVZ) if _n<26 *confidence interval gen ax=1.96*consx gen upperx=conbx+ax gen lowerx=conbx-ax gen yline=0 *plot local varlabel: variable label admincomp *lines graph twoway hist admincomp if temp_new==1, width(1) percent color(gs14) yaxis(2) /// || line conbx MVZ, clpattern(solid) clwidth(medium) clcolor(black) yaxis(1) /// || line upperx MVZ, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black) /// || line lowerx MVZ, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black) /// || line yline MVZ, clwidth(thin) clcolor(black) clpattern(solid) /// || , /// xlabel(0(5)25, nogrid labsize(2)) /// ylabel(-.25(.05).2, axis(1) nogrid labsize(2)) /// ylabel(0(2)22, axis(2) nogrid labsize(2)) /// yscale(noline alt) /// yscale(noline alt axis(2)) /// xscale(noline) /// legend(off) /// xtitle("`varlabel'" , size(2.5) ) /// ytitle("Marginal effect of crisis" , axis(1) size(2.5)) /// ytitle("" , axis(2) size(2.5)) /// r2title("Percentage of observations", size(2.5)) /// xsca(titlegap(2)) /// ysca(titlegap(2)) /// scheme(s2mono) graphregion(fcolor(white) ilcolor(white) lcolor(white)) graph export admin_eu_balance_gdp.pdf, as(pdf) replace restore preserve ********************************************** ********************************************** * Interaction with government compensation ** ************************ *GDP growth gen XXX = GDP_growth*govcomp xtreg f1.pa_reforms GDP_growth govcomp XXX `c_base1' `years', fe cluster(country) gen temp_new=1 if e(sample) matrix b=e(b) matrix V=e(V) *get coefficients, variances and covariance of election and of the interaction term scalar b1=b[1,1] scalar b3=b[1,3] scalar varb1=V[1,1] scalar varb3=V[3,3] scalar covb1b3=V[1,3] scalar list b1 b3 varb1 varb3 covb1b3 *shall start at 10 and be in steps of 1 gen MVZ=(_n+9) *25 is maximum value for which marginal effect shall be displayed replace MVZ=. if _n>30 *marginal effect calculation for values of Z gen conbx=b1+b3*MVZ if _n<31 *std error of marginal effects gen consx=sqrt(varb1+varb3*(MVZ^2)+2*covb1b3*MVZ) if _n<31 *confidence interval gen ax=1.96*consx gen upperx=conbx+ax gen lowerx=conbx-ax gen yline=0 *plot local varlabel: variable label govcomp *lines graph twoway hist govcomp if temp_new==1, width(1) percent color(gs14) yaxis(2) /// || line conbx MVZ, clpattern(solid) clwidth(medium) clcolor(black) yaxis(1) /// || line upperx MVZ, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black) /// || line lowerx MVZ, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black) /// || line yline MVZ, clwidth(thin) clcolor(black) clpattern(solid) /// || , /// xlabel(10(5)40, nogrid labsize(2)) /// ylabel(-.2(.05).3, axis(1) nogrid labsize(2)) /// ylabel(0(1)12, axis(2) nogrid labsize(2)) /// yscale(noline alt) /// yscale(noline alt axis(2)) /// xscale(noline) /// legend(off) /// xtitle("`varlabel'" , size(2.5) ) /// ytitle("Marginal effect of crisis" , axis(1) size(2.5)) /// ytitle("" , axis(2) size(2.5)) /// r2title("Percentage of observations", size(2.5)) /// xsca(titlegap(2)) /// ysca(titlegap(2)) /// scheme(s2mono) graphregion(fcolor(white) ilcolor(white) lcolor(white)) graph export gov_gdp.pdf, as(pdf) replace restore preserve ************************ *unemployment rate gen XXX = unemploymentrate*govcomp xtreg f1.pa_reforms unemploymentrate govcomp XXX `c_base1' `years', fe cluster(country) gen temp_new=1 if e(sample) matrix b=e(b) matrix V=e(V) *get coefficients, variances and covariance of election and of the interaction term scalar b1=b[1,1] scalar b3=b[1,3] scalar varb1=V[1,1] scalar varb3=V[3,3] scalar covb1b3=V[1,3] scalar list b1 b3 varb1 varb3 covb1b3 *shall start at 10 and be in steps of 1 gen MVZ=(_n+9) *25 is maximum value for which marginal effect shall be displayed replace MVZ=. if _n>30 *marginal effect calculation for values of Z gen conbx=b1+b3*MVZ if _n<31 *std error of marginal effects gen consx=sqrt(varb1+varb3*(MVZ^2)+2*covb1b3*MVZ) if _n<31 *confidence interval gen ax=1.96*consx gen upperx=conbx+ax gen lowerx=conbx-ax gen yline=0 *plot local varlabel: variable label govcomp *lines graph twoway hist govcomp if temp_new==1, width(1) percent color(gs14) yaxis(2) /// || line conbx MVZ, clpattern(solid) clwidth(medium) clcolor(black) yaxis(1) /// || line upperx MVZ, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black) /// || line lowerx MVZ, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black) /// || line yline MVZ, clwidth(thin) clcolor(black) clpattern(solid) /// || , /// xlabel(10(5)40, nogrid labsize(2)) /// ylabel(-.5(.1)1, axis(1) nogrid labsize(2)) /// ylabel(0(1)12, axis(2) nogrid labsize(2)) /// yscale(noline alt) /// yscale(noline alt axis(2)) /// xscale(noline) /// legend(off) /// xtitle("`varlabel'" , size(2.5) ) /// ytitle("Marginal effect of crisis" , axis(1) size(2.5)) /// ytitle("" , axis(2) size(2.5)) /// r2title("Percentage of observations", size(2.5)) /// xsca(titlegap(2)) /// ysca(titlegap(2)) /// scheme(s2mono) graphregion(fcolor(white) ilcolor(white) lcolor(white)) graph export gov_unemployment.pdf, as(pdf) replace restore preserve ************************ *eu_debt_gdp gen XXX = eu_debt_gdp*govcomp xtreg f1.pa_reforms eu_debt_gdp govcomp XXX `c_base1' `years', fe cluster(country) gen temp_new=1 if e(sample) matrix b=e(b) matrix V=e(V) *get coefficients, variances and covariance of election and of the interaction term scalar b1=b[1,1] scalar b3=b[1,3] scalar varb1=V[1,1] scalar varb3=V[3,3] scalar covb1b3=V[1,3] scalar list b1 b3 varb1 varb3 covb1b3 *shall start at 10 and be in steps of 1 gen MVZ=(_n+9) *25 is maximum value for which marginal effect shall be displayed replace MVZ=. if _n>30 *marginal effect calculation for values of Z gen conbx=b1+b3*MVZ if _n<31 *std error of marginal effects gen consx=sqrt(varb1+varb3*(MVZ^2)+2*covb1b3*MVZ) if _n<31 *confidence interval gen ax=1.96*consx gen upperx=conbx+ax gen lowerx=conbx-ax gen yline=0 *plot local varlabel: variable label govcomp *lines graph twoway hist govcomp if temp_new==1, width(1) percent color(gs14) yaxis(2) /// || line conbx MVZ, clpattern(solid) clwidth(medium) clcolor(black) yaxis(1) /// || line upperx MVZ, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black) /// || line lowerx MVZ, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black) /// || line yline MVZ, clwidth(thin) clcolor(black) clpattern(solid) /// || , /// xlabel(10(5)40, nogrid labsize(2)) /// ylabel(-.04(.02).1, axis(1) nogrid labsize(2)) /// ylabel(0(1)12, axis(2) nogrid labsize(2)) /// yscale(noline alt) /// yscale(noline alt axis(2)) /// xscale(noline) /// legend(off) /// xtitle("`varlabel'" , size(2.5) ) /// ytitle("Marginal effect of crisis" , axis(1) size(2.5)) /// ytitle("" , axis(2) size(2.5)) /// r2title("Percentage of observations", size(2.5)) /// xsca(titlegap(2)) /// ysca(titlegap(2)) /// scheme(s2mono) graphregion(fcolor(white) ilcolor(white) lcolor(white)) graph export gov_eu_debt_gdp.pdf, as(pdf) replace restore preserve ************************ *eu_balance_gdp gen XXX = eu_balance_gdp*govcomp xtreg f1.pa_reforms eu_balance_gdp govcomp XXX `c_base1' `years', fe cluster(country) gen temp_new=1 if e(sample) matrix b=e(b) matrix V=e(V) *get coefficients, variances and covariance of election and of the interaction term scalar b1=b[1,1] scalar b3=b[1,3] scalar varb1=V[1,1] scalar varb3=V[3,3] scalar covb1b3=V[1,3] scalar list b1 b3 varb1 varb3 covb1b3 *shall start at 10 and be in steps of 1 gen MVZ=(_n+9) *25 is maximum value for which marginal effect shall be displayed replace MVZ=. if _n>30 *marginal effect calculation for values of Z gen conbx=b1+b3*MVZ if _n<31 *std error of marginal effects gen consx=sqrt(varb1+varb3*(MVZ^2)+2*covb1b3*MVZ) if _n<31 *confidence interval gen ax=1.96*consx gen upperx=conbx+ax gen lowerx=conbx-ax gen yline=0 *plot local varlabel: variable label govcomp *lines graph twoway hist govcomp if temp_new==1, width(1) percent color(gs14) yaxis(2) /// || line conbx MVZ, clpattern(solid) clwidth(medium) clcolor(black) yaxis(1) /// || line upperx MVZ, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black) /// || line lowerx MVZ, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black) /// || line yline MVZ, clwidth(thin) clcolor(black) clpattern(solid) /// || , /// xlabel(10(5)40, nogrid labsize(2)) /// ylabel(-.4(.1).3, axis(1) nogrid labsize(2)) /// ylabel(0(1)12, axis(2) nogrid labsize(2)) /// yscale(noline alt) /// yscale(noline alt axis(2)) /// xscale(noline) /// legend(off) /// xtitle("`varlabel'" , size(2.5) ) /// ytitle("Marginal effect of crisis" , axis(1) size(2.5)) /// ytitle("" , axis(2) size(2.5)) /// r2title("Percentage of observations", size(2.5)) /// xsca(titlegap(2)) /// ysca(titlegap(2)) /// scheme(s2mono) graphregion(fcolor(white) ilcolor(white) lcolor(white)) graph export gov_eu_balance_gdp.pdf, as(pdf) replace **** restore